The reality of referendums is that it isn't about a choice between two platforms.

YES is for a change, NO is merely for retaining what we have.

The YES side has to sell a product and right now, it's pretty obvious that they have made a pigs wrinkle out of it. The more people know and talk about the referendum, the lower support goes.

Historically, the push has been against including specific races in the Constitution. The biggest YES vote ever recorded, in 1967, was to remove "Aboriginal natives" from the Constitution. In 1999 an attempt was made to reinsert Indigenous Australians and that only attracted 39% support.

My prediction is that this more complicated and risky referendum will do worse.